Though the polls beg to differ, Norpoth has predicted the winner of the last five presidential elections dating back to 1996. How, you ask? By using a statistical model based on the outcomes of primaries.
"Some twenty years ago, I constructed a formula, the Primary Model, that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced," says Norpoth.
Based on election data going all the way back to 1912, the formula has only been wrong once.
"The Primary Model," explains Norpoth, "consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcome of primaries."
Norpoth contends the pendulum swings to the opposite party after two consecutive terms. The Dems have been in power for two terms. History points to a Republican win this time. Only once in the past 65 years has the pendulum stayed put: George H.W. Bush managed to win a third Republican term in 1988.
"That spells continuity," said Norpoth, " a desire for more of the same." We can thank Ronald Reagan for that.
When you add in the presidential primary results, you've got a formula that favors Republicans.
"In general, the party with the stronger primary candidate wins the general election."
"The Primary Model predicts that Trump will defeat Clinton with 87 percent certainty."
Professor Norpoth is betting on a Republican victory--literally. He's got 500 bucks riding on the Trump Train...in spite of what the polls say.
A wise man once said: "It is time to make a decision about America's future. My hope is that we will contritely and humbly turn from our wicked ways and put our hope in God alone. There is no other remedy." --Franklin Graham, Decision-The Evangelical Voice of Today
"If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land" --2 Chronicles 7:14News:
- Reuters: NATO seeks to manage Russia's new military deployments; puzzled by Russia's behavior
- DEBKAfile: U.S., Britain to place troops in Poland, Romania, as tension with Russia rises; two Russian warships armed with cruise missiles entered the Baltic Sea Wednesday.
- CBN News: Largest Military Buildup Begins On Russian Borders Since Cold War; U.S. promises troops, tanks, and artillery to Poland. Germany, Canada, and other NATO allies also pledged forces.