"Amazing Election Prediction: Professor Puts Money Where His Mouth Is"

According to Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, the next American president will be Donald Trump.

Though the polls beg to differ, Norpoth has predicted the winner of the last five presidential elections dating back to 1996. How, you ask? By using a statistical model based on the outcomes of primaries.

"Some twenty years ago, I constructed a formula, the Primary Model, that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced," says Norpoth.

Based on election data going all the way back to 1912, the formula has only been wrong once.

"The Primary Model," explains Norpoth, "consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcome of primaries."

Norpoth contends the pendulum swings to the opposite party after two consecutive terms. The Dems have been in power for two terms. History points to a Republican win this time. Only once in the past 65 years has the pendulum stayed put: George H.W. Bush managed to win a third Republican term in 1988.

"That spells continuity," said Norpoth, " a desire for more of the same." We can thank Ronald Reagan for that.

When you add in the presidential primary results, you've got a formula that favors Republicans.

"In general, the party with the stronger primary candidate wins the general election."

"The Primary Model predicts that Trump will defeat Clinton with 87 percent certainty."

Professor Norpoth  is betting on a Republican victory--literally. He's got 500 bucks riding on the Trump Train...in spite of what the polls say.

A wise man once said: "It is time to make a decision about America's future. My hope is that we will contritely and humbly turn from our wicked ways and put our hope in God alone. There is no other remedy." --Franklin Graham, Decision-The Evangelical Voice of Today

"If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land" --2 Chronicles 7:14

News:

• Reuters: NATO seeks to manage Russia's new military deployments; puzzled by Russia's behavior
• DEBKAfile: U.S., Britain to place troops in Poland, Romania, as tension with Russia rises; two Russian warships armed with cruise missiles entered the Baltic Sea Wednesday.
• CBN News: Largest Military Buildup Begins On Russian Borders Since Cold War; U.S. promises troops, tanks, and artillery to Poland. Germany, Canada, and other NATO allies also pledged forces. 

"White Lies Matter: Are You In The 'Basket of Deplorables'?"

According to a recent HuffPost Pollster, Hillary Clinton's unfavorable rating is at 56.7% and rising. The latest Gallop, NBC and CNN polls put the unfavorables even higher.

One-third of New York Democrats say she is neither honest nor trustworthy and her image is at record lows among voters of both parties.

Why? Because white lies matter. And while throwing half of Trump's supporters into what she calls "a Basket of Deplorables" didn't help any--it's her lack of honesty that is hurting her at the polls.

Do little white lies matter? Are there different levels of lying, and are some okay?

The Bible says all lies matter.

According to Got Questions?.org, lying is defined as "making an untrue statement with the intent to deceive."

"A white lie is an untrue statement, but is usually considered unimportant because it doesn't cover up a serious wrongdoing. A white lie is deceptive, but it may also be polite or diplomatic at the same time."

Some white lies are common, for example lying about:

• one's age
• or when you're asked the dreaded: "Does this make me look fat?"
• or when you're telling the story about the fish that got away.

In other words, some lies are considered okay because they don't hurt anyone.

The truth? God expects honesty, and lying always hurts someone--you and God.

Got Questions? cautions, "It is true that some sins bring about worse consequences than others. And it is true that telling a white lie will not have the same serious effect as, say, murdering someone. But all sins are equally offensive to God. (Romans 6:23: "For the wages of sin is death.").

While telling the truth may not always be easy (and sometimes it can be downright unpleasant), it is always right. (Proverbs 12:22 says: "Lying lips are an abomination to the Lord, but those who act faithfully are His delight").

So when it comes to white lies we are probably all in that 'Basket of Deplorables'. All lies matter and if you still have your doubts, go back and look at Hillary's poll numbers.

A wise man once said: "When we tell little white lies, we become progressively color-blind. It is better to remain silent than to mislead." -- James E. Faust

News:

• Bloomberg Markets: Former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan: "...the worst economic and political environment ever...I hope we can all find a way out..."
• The Washington Post: White House plans to accept at least 110,000 refugees in 2017, up from 85,000 in 2016.
• Los Angeles Times: Trump's lead widens in USC/L.A.Times tracking poll; up 6 points.

"Armageddon & The Election"

Dick Morris' new book, Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary, is the number three bestseller in the nation, according to The New York Times. 

"This may be the last election where the United States has a two-party system," warns Morris, best known as a former Clinton adviser and political strategist who has since 'gone rogue'.

"The 2016 election is truly America's Armageddon--the ultimate and decisive battle to save America, a fight to defeat Hillary Clinton and the forces seeking to flout our constitutional government and replace it with an all-powerful president backed-up by an activist judiciary that answers to no one."

(Besides being a run-on sentence, Morris' definition of armageddon flies wild regardless of which side of the political spectrum one leans...but we digress).

For the first time, reports DOWNTREND.com, the top three NYT Non-fiction Bestsellers are anti-Clinton books:
#2-Hillary's America by Dinesh D'Souza who warns: "We are on the brink of losing our country forever. After eight years of Obama, four years--or possibly eight years of Hillary Clinton as President of the United States would so utterly transform America as to make it unrecognizable."

#1-Crisis of Character by former Secret Service Agent Gary J. Byrne. A runaway bestseller by the man posted directly outside the Oval Office during Bill Clinton's reign. Needless to say, he had little good to tell us about the 'up-close-and-personal' Hillary.

One needn't be on the Trump-train to be concerned about the direction this election may take. According to a recent Reuters Poll, 20% of 'born-again Christians' plan to sit this election out.

Trump's net favorability rating among evangelicals is at minus -38%. Clinton's is at -61%.

The problem? The Senate, The House and, most importantly The Supreme Court appointments. Though understandable, it seems vital to resist the temptation to vote with our feet because, while Dick Morris' characterization of a Clinton win as 'Armageddon' may be over-the-top, Dinesh D'Souza's assessment may not be.

A wise man once said: "If we forget that we are One Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under." --Ronald Reagan

"The fear of the LORD is the beginning of wisdom. And knowledge of the Holy One is understanding." Proverbs 15:33

News:

• Reuters: New Poll Puts Clinton 6 Points Ahead Of Trump In Head-to-Head
• DEBKA file: Russia builds up forces in Crimea with international attention focused elsewhere; fear of invasion builds.
• FNC: Intel services suspected of "cooking the books" when it comes to terrorism; painting a rosier picture than exists.

"Liar, Liar, Pantsuit on Fire?"

Whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, all Americans should be outraged by FBI Director James Comey's statements on Hillary Clinton Tuesday.

Why? "Because our laws should apply to everybody and Hillary Clinton clearly violated the law," said former NYC Mayor, Rudy Giuliani.

As a former prosecutor and Comey's former boss, Giuliani added, "though Jim Comey is a friend of mine, I am shocked by his conclusions."

What exactly were Comey's conclusions?

• Clinton routinely sent classified information on multiple devices through private (unsecured) servers.
• Clinton's private email servers contained more than 2,000 classified documents.
• With 110 marked 'Classified' at the time they were sent
• 8 were marked 'Top Secret'
• 'Hostile actors' likely gained access through the people she contacted.
• Clinton was "extremely careless" with very sensitive, highly classified information (and lied repeatedly under oath when she claimed "none of my emails were classified.")
• Many deleted emails were also classified.

In spite of all that, Hillary Clinton was cleared on Tuesday by the FBI, only days after Bill Clinton and Attorney General Loretta Lynch (who is in charge of the investigation of Hillary!) met secretly in a private jet to discuss...you guessed it---"golf".

Giuliani insists the "gross negligence" by Clinton, outlined by Comey in his statement to reporters, should have resulted in a criminal prosecution. The fact that it didn't was in itself 'gross negligence' on Comey's part.

Meanwhile, Comey acknowledged that rank-and-file government employees might not get off the hook so easily in similar circumstances, and would probably be "subject to security or administrative sanctions."

But not Clinton.

It seems the biggest truth this FBI probe uncovered is that some people really are above the law.

A wise man once said: "If the FBI are no longer prepared to uphold the rule of law, it becomes the duty of the people to see that justice is served. Make your vote count." -- iPhone Conservative

"Live as people who are free. Not using your freedom as a cover-up for evil, but living as servants of God." -- 1Peter 2:16

News:

• Daily Mail: Donald Trump: Clinton "guilty as hell" of violating U.S. Espionage Act by placing state secrets within reach of foreign intelligence services.
• Mirror: 'Black Power' group claims responsibility for police killings and warns of more.
• CNN: Democratic leader Sen. Harry Reid tells Republicans to "just get over it" in regards to Hillary Clinton's email scandal.